A conceptual model for meteorological drought prediction at seasonal scale in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River
CAO Rui1, HE Hai1, WU Zhiyong1, YIN Hao1, WANG Ping2
1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098; 2. Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210029
Abstract:The occurrence of meteorological drought events at seasonal scale is closely related to the abnormal movement of large-scale circulation system. Based on the identification of historical meteorological drought events in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, the anomalous characteristics of drought-causing circulation system were discussed, and the indicative signals were selected.The conceptual model of drought prediction at seasonal scale was established by using the method of partial least squares regression with the seasonal meteorological drought index as the drought prediction index.The calibration and validation results show that the correlation coefficient between the predicted SPI3 index and the measured SPI3 index is 0.64 in the calibration period and 0.56 in the validation period,indicating that the prediction model has a certain prediction effect.This study can provide technical support for regional seasonal scale meteorological drought prediction and advance analysis of drought development situation.
曹睿, 何海, 吴志勇, 殷浩, 王萍. 长江中下游地区季节尺度气象干旱预测概念模[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2021, 31(6): 11-15.
CAO Rui, HE Hai, WU Zhiyong, YIN Hao, WANG Ping. A conceptual model for meteorological drought prediction at seasonal scale in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. journal1, 2021, 31(6): 11-15.
[1] Zhou T, Yu R, Zhang J, et al.Why the western pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s[J].Journal of Climate, 2009, 22(8):2199-2215. [5] Hoerling M, Eischeid J, Kumar A, et al. Causes and predictability of the 2012 great plains drought[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2014, 95(2):269-282. [6] 刘长征, 杜良敏, 柯宗建, 等. 国家气候中心多模式解释应用集成预测[J]. 应用气象学报, 2013, 24(6):677-685. [7] Wood E F a, Schubert S D b, Wood A W c, et al. Prospects for advancing drought understanding, monitoring and prediction[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2015, 16(4):1636-1657. [8] Li Y, Lu G, He H, et al. The sensitivity of dynamical downscaling seasonal precipitation forecasts to convection and land surface parameterization in a high resolution regional climate model[J]. Advances in Meteorology, 2019(10):1-14. [9] Mckee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Paper Presented at 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Am Meteorol Soc, Anaheim, Calif, 1993:179-184. [10] Hart R E, Grumm R H. Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic-scale events objectively[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2001, 129(9):2426-2422. [11] Grumm R H, Hart R. Standardized anomalies applied to significant cold season weather events:preliminary findings[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2001, 16(6):736-754. [12] 闫恒乾, 洪梅, 张韧, 等. 基于偏最小二乘回归的冬季北太平洋风暴轴指数的特征诊断[J]. 气象科学, 2018, 38(5):596-605. [13] 韩嫣然. 基于偏最小二乘回归法的城市水资源承载力影响因子研究[J]. 地下水, 2019, 41(1):156-157, 186. [14] 国家气候中心, 中国气象局预报与网络司, 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所.气象干旱等级:GB/T 20481-2017[S].北京:中国标准出版社, 2017. [2] 苏涛, 张世轩, 支蓉, 等. 江淮流域夏季降水对前冬持续时间长短的响应[J]. 物理学报, 2013, 62(6):525-533. [3] Cheung H N, Zhou W, Mok H Y, et al.Revisiting the climatology of atmospheric blocking in the northern hemisphere[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2013, 30(2):397-410. [4] Yuan X, Wood E F, Roundy J K, et al. CFSv2-based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts over the conterminous United States[J].Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(13):4828-4847.