Analysis of physical exposures under serious flood disasters in the wide floodplain of the lower Yellow River
ZHANG Xiangping1,2,3, LI Junhua1,2, Wang Yuanjian1,2, JIANG Enhui1,2
1. Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003; 2. Yellow River sediment key laboratory of ministry of water resources, Zhengzhou 450003
Abstract：The analysis of the physical exposures to the serious flood disaster scenarios in the wide floodplain of the lower Yellow River provides scientific basis for the decision-making of flood control and disaster reduction in the lower Yellow River Basin. Based on scenario analysis method and ArcGIS spatial analysis technology,the flood disaster database of the wide floodplain in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is constructed. Taking historical serious flood disasters of "1958.7" and "1977.8" as scenarios,the physical exposures of population,GDP,grain yield and fixed assets in the area in 2010 under different application modes of the wide floodplain are analyzed,and the physical exposures of the disaster-bearing bodies in the area are evaluated. Results indicate:①According to ArcGIS spatial analysis technology,the submerged area of the "1958.7" event,under the current plan,is 1 272.40 km2. The submerged area of the wide floodplain of the plan with levees and without sluices is much smaller than that of the current plan. The submerged area is almost identical under 8 000 m3/s and 10 000 m3/s discharge under the plan with levees and sluices. In the flood scenario of "1977.8" event,there was almost no flooding in the beach area with levees and without sluices,and the submerged area with levees and sluices was smaller than that in the flood scenario of "1958.7". ②If the serious flood disaster in the floodplain of the lower Yellow River occurred in 2010,under the "1958.7" flood scenario,the population exposure with the current plan is 1.6645 million,and the GDP exposure is 10.026 billion yuan. Under the "1977.8" flood scenario,the population exposure with the current plan is 1.3367 million,and the GDP exposure is 6.382 billion. According to different plans under two flood scenarios,the exposure of the current plan is greater than that with levees and sluices plan,and then the zoning plan. The exposures without levees and sluices plan are the smallest. This shows that the effect with levees and without sluice is better than that with levees and sluices plan,zoning plan and current plan.
张向萍, 李军华, 王远见, 江恩慧. 黄河下游宽滩区重大洪涝灾害情景下的物理暴露量分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2019, 29(4): 22-28.
ZHANG Xiangping, LI Junhua, Wang Yuanjian, JIANG Enhui. Analysis of physical exposures under serious flood disasters in the wide floodplain of the lower Yellow River. journal1, 2019, 29(4): 22-28.
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2019, Vol. 29 
