以深圳河流域为例分析粤港澳大湾区城市洪涝及其成因

doi:10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021290

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摘要随着全球气候变化和城市化快速发展，城市洪涝灾害日趋严重，科学、系统、全面认识变化环境下城市洪涝成因，对于完善沿海城市防洪（潮）除涝减灾体系和减轻城市洪（潮）涝灾害损失至关重要。以粤港澳大湾区深圳河流域为例，基于降水、下垫面、产汇流、潮位和热带气旋等因子对其城市洪涝成因进行分析。研究结果表明：深圳河流域年降水量、极端降水量和极端降水频次均呈增加趋势；城市化的快速发展，显著改变了流域原有的下垫面条件，增加了城市区域径流系数和洪峰流量，导致城市洪涝风险加剧。此外，深圳河流域年平均高潮潮位和超强台风呈增加趋势，当风暴潮、天文大潮和极端降水其中两个遭遇或者“三碰头”时，将引发更为严重的城市洪（潮）涝灾害。

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	陈浩
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关键词 ：气候变化, 城市化, 洪涝成因, 极端降水, 风暴潮

Abstract：During the past years, urban flood disaster is becoming a big challenge due to the joint impact of global climate change and rapid urbanization.A scientific, systematic and comprehensive understanding of the causes of urban flood under the changing environment is very important to improve the flood and tide prevention and disaster reduction system in coastal cities, and to reduce the loss of urban flood and tide disasters.The causes of urban flood are analyzed on the basis of factors such as precipitation, underlying surface, runoff, tide level and tropical cyclone in the Shenzhen River Basin of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in this study.The results show that the annual precipitation,extreme precipitation and frequency of extreme precipitation in the Shenzhen River Basin were increasing.The rapid urbanization has significantly changed the original underlying surface conditions in the study area,increased the urban regional runoff coefficient and flood peak flow, and exacerbated the risk of urban flood disaster. In addition, the annual average high tide level and super typhoon in the Shenzhen River Basin showed an increasing tendency.When two or three of storm surge, astronomical spring tide and extreme precipitation occur at the same time, serious urban flood, tide and waterlogging disasters will occur.

Key words： climate change urbanization causes of flood and waterlogging extreme precipitation storm surge

收稿日期: 2021-09-25

PACS:

TU998.4

基金资助:国家自然科学基金面上项目（52079005）；国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC1502701）。

通讯作者: 徐宗学,男,教授,E-mail:zxxu@bnu.edu.cn。 E-mail: zxxu@bnu.edu.cn

作者简介: 陈浩,男,博士,E-mail:hhchen@bnu.edu.cn。

引用本文:

陈浩, 徐宗学, 向代峰, 付铁文. 以深圳河流域为例分析粤港澳大湾区城市洪涝及其成因[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2021, 31(11): 14-19.
CHEN Hao, XU Zongxue, XIANG Daifeng, FU Tiewen. Analysis of urban flood and the causes in GuangdongHong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area by taking the Shenzhen River Basin as an example. journal1, 2021, 31(11): 14-19.

链接本文:

http://www.cfdm.cn/CN/10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021290 或 http://www.cfdm.cn/CN/Y2021/V31/I11/14

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