冰川崩塌冰湖溃决引发的洪涝灾害调查及应对策略

doi:10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2022452

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摘要我国冰川资源主要分布在青藏高原及周边地区，在全球变暖背景下，青藏高原及周边地区冰川整体上处于快速消融状态。冰川的快速变化降低冰川自身的稳定性，进而导致冰川灾害的发生风险增加，冰湖溃决洪水是冰川灾害中影响最大的自然灾害，21世纪以来冰湖溃决灾害发生频率明显上升。未来气温升高和降水的增加将加速冰川的退化，气温升高、冰川融水增加、降水量增加、极端天气条件增多，必将造成冰湖溃决风险增大。通过梳理典型历史灾害事件和气候变化下冰湖溃决洪水风险发展趋势，提出了冰川冰湖灾害应对建议，即部署排查普查，建立重点区域清单；建立多部门长效合作机制，做好协同协作；加强重点区域风险预警；研究冰湖溃决和漫溢溃坝洪水机理和风险；做好应急处置，指导地方编制预案。

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	曲伟
	刘昌军
	吕娟
	宋文龙
	刘业森
	李帅

关键词 ：冰川冰湖, 冰湖溃决洪水, 洪涝灾害

Abstract：Glacier resources in China are mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and its surrounding areas. Under the background of global warming, the glaciers on the Tibetan plateau and surrounding areas are in a state of rapid melting as a whole. Rapid change of the glacier reduces its stability, resulting in increased risk of the occurrence of glacier disaster. Glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFS) is the most influential natural disaster among glacier disasters, the frequency of GLOFS increased dramatically since the 21st century. The future increase in temperature and precipitation will accelerate the degradation of glaciers, and rising temperature, increasing glacier meltwater, abundant precipitation, and more extreme weather conditions will increase the risk of GLOFS. Through sorting out the development trend of typical historical disaster events and the risk of glacial lake outburst flood under climate change, the paper puts forward suggestions for glacial lake disaster response, that is, deployment check and survey and establishment of a list of key areas; Establish a long-term cooperation mechanism with multiple departments and do a good job of coordination; Strengthen risk early warning in key regions; Study the mechanism and risk of glacial lake outburst flood and overflow dam-break flood; Do a good job in emergency response and guide local authorities formulating forecast scheme.

Key words： glacial lake glacial lake outburst flood flood disaster

收稿日期: 2022-11-07

PACS:	TV122.4
	P343.6

作者简介: 曲伟,女,正高级工程师,E-mail:quwei@iwhr.com。

引用本文:

曲伟, 刘昌军, 吕娟, 宋文龙, 刘业森, 李帅. 冰川崩塌冰湖溃决引发的洪涝灾害调查及应对策略[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2023, 33(1): 27-30.
QU Wei, LIU Changjun, LYU Juan, SONG Wenlong, LIU Yesen, LI Shuai. Investigation and suggestions on flood disasters caused by glacier collapse and glacial lake breaking. journal1, 2023, 33(1): 27-30.

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http://www.cfdm.cn/CN/10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2022452 或 http://www.cfdm.cn/CN/Y2023/V33/I1/27

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