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    实时洪水风险分析技术在防汛应急中的应用

    Application of realtime flood risk analysis in flood emergency and prevention

    • 摘要: 实时洪水风险分析可以在防汛应急、抢险救灾等方面发挥重要作用,但由于技术条件、数据基础等各方面原因,全面实现实时洪水风险分析还有较大难度。梳理总结了一套实时洪水风险的分析方法,包括基础资料、模型方法、技术流程等,并以2018年6月赣江支流蜀水超历史记录洪水的实时分析为例进行模型方法的检验。检验结果表明,该分析方法有效、可行,在防汛应急指挥调度等工作中能发挥重要作用。最后,指出全面实施实时洪水风险分析目前仍存在着工作机制、条件支撑、与相关部门的协作等诸多制约因素;针对存在的问题,给出了相应部门组织、运行机制、协作运行方式等方面的建议。

       

      Abstract: The realtime flood risk analysis can play an important role in flood emergency and disaster relief, but it is difficult to fully realize the real-time flood risk analysis because of the some factors, such as technical conditions, data base and so on. This paper summarizes a set of realtime flood risk analysis method, including basic datasets, model methods, and technical program. Taking the realtime flood analysis of the Shu River in the tributary of Ganjiang River in June 2018 as an example, the model method is tested. The results show that the method proposed in this paper is effective and feasible, and can play an important role in flood prevention,emergency, command and dispatch. Finally, it points out that the working mechanism, support condition, cooperation with other departments, and other restrictive factors still exist in the implementation of realtime flood risk analysis. Some suggestions are given to the department organization, operation mechanism and cooperative operation mode for those problems.

       

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