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    包红军, 曹勇, 林建, 杨寅, 狄靖月, 许凤雯, 刘凑华. 山洪灾害气象预警业务技术进展[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2020, 30(9-10): 40-47. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2020085
    引用本文: 包红军, 曹勇, 林建, 杨寅, 狄靖月, 许凤雯, 刘凑华. 山洪灾害气象预警业务技术进展[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2020, 30(9-10): 40-47. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2020085
    BAO Hongjun, CAO Yong, LIN Jian, YANG Yin, DI Jingyue, XU Fengwen, LIU Couhua. Operational technology advances in meteorological early warning for flash flood disasters[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2020, 30(9-10): 40-47. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2020085
    Citation: BAO Hongjun, CAO Yong, LIN Jian, YANG Yin, DI Jingyue, XU Fengwen, LIU Couhua. Operational technology advances in meteorological early warning for flash flood disasters[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2020, 30(9-10): 40-47. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2020085

    山洪灾害气象预警业务技术进展

    Operational technology advances in meteorological early warning for flash flood disasters

    • 摘要: 从我国暴雨区域特征、定量降水估测与预报技术、山洪灾害气象预警技术、山洪灾害气象风险预警业务4个方面系统介绍中国气象局山洪灾害气象预警业务技术进展。阐述了地理信息系统与不同水文气象分区短历时降水特性基础上的多源信息融合雨量实况场是支撑面向山洪灾害的雨量监测预警精度的重要途径;机器学习与雷达外推、快速同化预报相结合的短时临近定量降水智能预报技术,基于控制体积法的概念性与物理性结合的分布式水文模型以及动态雨量阈值技术是提升面向山洪灾害预报预警精度的主要方法;山洪灾害风险普查广度与深度是推动山洪灾害气象风险预警业务能力的前提条件。

       

      Abstract: A review of operational technology advances in meteorological early warning for flash flood disaster is presented with regional characteristics of torrential rain in China, quantitative precipitation evaluation and forecasting, meteorological early warning for flash flood disaster, and operation of meteorological early warning for flash flood disaster. Results show that multi-source precipitation merging model, based on GIS and characteristics of short duration precipitation for different hydrometeorological divisions, is an important way for flash flood monitoring; nowcasting and short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting combined with machine learning, radar extrapolation, rapid assimilation and forecasting, distributed hydrological model controlling volume method with coupling conceptual runoff generation module and physical routing module, dynamic rainfall thresholds are the main methods to improve the meteorological warning accuracy for flash flood disaster. The breadth and depth of the risk survey for flash flood disaster is the precondition of promoting the operational capability of meteorological early warning of flash flood disaster.

       

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