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    郭良, 朱金峰, 翟晓燕, 李佳杰. 暴雨频率图编制构想与成果展望[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2020, 30(9-10): 87-91. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2020236
    引用本文: 郭良, 朱金峰, 翟晓燕, 李佳杰. 暴雨频率图编制构想与成果展望[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2020, 30(9-10): 87-91. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2020236
    GUO Liang, ZHU Jinfeng, ZHAI Xiaoyan, LI Jiajie. Research framework and anticipated results of the compilation of precipitation frequency atlas[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2020, 30(9-10): 87-91. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2020236
    Citation: GUO Liang, ZHU Jinfeng, ZHAI Xiaoyan, LI Jiajie. Research framework and anticipated results of the compilation of precipitation frequency atlas[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2020, 30(9-10): 87-91. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2020236

    暴雨频率图编制构想与成果展望

    Research framework and anticipated results of the compilation of precipitation frequency atlas

    • 摘要: 我国暴雨事件多发频发,是洪水灾害的诱因。暴雨频率分析研究是科学评估暴雨洪水灾害风险隐患的基础。提出了我国暴雨频率图编制思路,全面整理分析迄今为止的暴雨资料,延长暴雨资料序列,增加代表性站点;以流域二级分区为单元,充分考虑区域气候背景和下垫面条件对降雨的影响,划分自然流域分区;在各分区内采用流域线性矩法估计站点统计参数,以皮尔逊Ⅲ型(P-Ⅲ型)分布曲线为基本线型进行优化适线,估算各频率下不同历时设计暴雨量,并采用蒙特卡洛方法构造设计暴雨量置信区间;基于空间插值模型计算网格和小流域单元设计点降雨量;基于典型降雨过程建立分区强度—面积—历时关系,确定分区设计暴雨雨型。以小流域和公里网格为单元,形成全国统一、全面、实用的暴雨频率图和暴雨频率数据库,以期为客观认识全国暴雨洪水灾害风险水平提供技术参考和决策依据。

       

      Abstract: Rainstorm events occur frequently in China,which is regarded as the main cause of flood disasters. Rainstorm frequency analysis provides a basis for the scientific assessment of rainstorm flood. This paper puts forward the idea of compiling the rainstorm frequency atlas in China. The rainstorm data so far will be comprehensively sorted out and analyzed, so as to extend the rainstorm data series and supplement representative rain stations. Considering the influences of regional climate background and underlying surface conditions on rainfall, the natural catchments regionalization will be divided based on the secondary catchment regionalization. In each natural catchment,the L-Moments method and the Pearson type Ⅲ distribution curve will be adopted for rainstorm frequency analysis of different durations under different frequencies. The confidence interval of design rainstorm will be constructed using Monte Carlo method. The point design rainstorm will be calculated at both grid and small catchment scale based on the spatial interpolation model. Furthermore, the typical rainfall events will be selected to construct the regional intensity-area-duration relationship and determine the design rainstorm distribution. The national precipitation frequency atlas and database will be constructed taking small catchment and kilometer grid as two basic spatial scale. This study is expected to provide technical reference and decision-making basis for the objective understanding of the rainstorm and flood disaster risks in China.

       

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