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    山洪灾害雨量预警指标分析方法评述与展望

    Review and outlook on the analysis methods of rainfall warning indicators for flash flood early warning

    • 摘要: 山洪灾害预警指标是山洪灾害预报预警的核心,我国现阶段主要采用经验法和水位流量反推法确定雨量预警指标,并逐步推广应用复合预警指标法和动态临界雨量法。在系统阐述国内外常用雨量预警指标分析方法及其特点基础上,针对山洪灾害预警指标分析中需考虑的降雨时空分布变化、高含砂水流、泥石流及其他不确定因素影响问题,提出今后雨量预警指标研究方向。

       

      Abstract: The early warning thresholds for flash flood disasters serve as the cornerstone of flash flood prediction and early warning systems.Currently, China predominantly relies on empirical methods and water stage-discharge backward extrapolation method to establish rainfall thresholds for early warnings.Additionally, there is a gradual shift towards adopting composite threshold and dynamic critical threshold approaches.In light of a comprehensive assessment of commonly used rainfall threshold analysis methods both in China and abroad, future research should prioritize modifying existing techniques.Specifically, attention should be directed towards accounting for the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall events, high-concentrated sediment flow, debris flow, and other uncertain factors.

       

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