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    刘炎. 1949—2023年影响上海的热带气旋移动路径特征分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(7):23−29. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024271
    引用本文: 刘炎. 1949—2023年影响上海的热带气旋移动路径特征分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(7):23−29. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024271
    LIU Yan.Analysis of tracks characteristics of tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai from 1949 to 2023[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(7):23−29. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024271
    Citation: LIU Yan.Analysis of tracks characteristics of tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai from 1949 to 2023[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(7):23−29. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024271

    1949—2023年影响上海的热带气旋移动路径特征分析

    Analysis of tracks characteristics of tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai from 1949 to 2023

    • 摘要: 为了更好地分析影响上海地区的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)路径特征,对1949—2023年影响上海市的TC资料进行研究。根据路径特点,可将TC路径分为4类:转向型、西北型、北上型和异常型路径;根据其登陆情况,又可细分为8个类别,并对不同路径类型TC的年际变化特征和季节变化特征,以及影响因素进行初步探讨分析。研究发现,影响上海市的TC路径及登陆上海市的TC路径均以转向型和异常型路径为主,其主要受外围引导气流、地转偏向力、藤原效应、地形及全球变暖等因素影响,整体呈现出2000年前少、2000年后多,夏秋多、春冬少的特征。

       

      Abstract: In order to better analyze the tracks characteristics of tropical cyclones affecting the Shanghai area, the tropical cyclones data affecting Shanghai from 1949 to 2023 were studied. According to the characteristics of the track, the tropical cyclones tracks can be divided into four types: turning type, northwestward type, northward type, and abnormal type tracks. According to its landing situation, it can be further subdivided into 8 categories, and a preliminary exploration and analysis is carried out on the interannual and seasonal variation characteristics of different path types of tropical cyclones, as well as the influencing factors.Research findings indicate that both the tracks of tropical cyclones affecting Shanghai and those making landfall in Shanghai are dominated by turning type and abnormal type tracks. These are mainly influenced by factors such as the steering flow, the coriolis force, the Fujiwhara effect, topography and global warming. The frequency of the tropical cyclones obviously increases after 2000 and all these tropical cyclones are produced more in summer and autumn than that in spring and winter.

       

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