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    基于预报—调度—演进模型的水库洪水风险分析

    Reservoir flood risk analysis based on forecasting scheduling evolution model

    • 摘要: 随着全球气候变化引发的极端天气事件频发,水库作为重要的水利设施,其防洪调度面临越来越复杂的挑战。以浙江松阳县小港流域为研究区域,构建了水文预报模型、水库调度模型、水动力模型及洪水风险分析模型,结合实际水库运行数据和历史洪水案例,对预报模型进行率定与验证。研究结果表明,该模型能够有效提高洪水预报的准确性,并优化水库调度策略,以降低洪水灾害对下游区域的影响。该研究不仅为水库防洪调度提供了科学的技术支撑,也为提升水资源管理的应急响应能力和灾害防范能力提供了新的理论支持与实践指导。

       

      Abstract: As extreme weather events become more frequent due to climate change, reservoirs face growing challenges in flood control scheduling. Taking the Xiaogang watershed in Songyang County, Zhejiang Province as the research area, hydrological forecasting models, reservoir scheduling models, hydrodynamic models, and flood risk analysis models were constructed. Based on actual reservoir scheduling and historical flood cases, the forecasting models were calibrated and validated. The research results indicate that the model can effectively improve the accuracy of flood forecasting and optimize reservoir scheduling strategies to reduce the impact of flood disasters on downstream areas. This study not only provides scientific technical support for reservoir flood control and scheduling, but also provides new theoretical support and practical guidance for improving the emergency response and disaster prevention capabilities of water resource management.

       

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