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    重大自然灾害救灾能力评估研究

    Research on the evaluation of disaster relief capacity for major natural disasters

    • 摘要: 重大自然灾害的救灾能力信息获取存在要素不全、精度不高、难以应用等问题,针对洪涝和地震两种自然灾害分类构建了区域尺度救灾能力分布及缺口动态分析模型。基于调查收集的全国历史典型洪涝、地震灾害灾情、救灾等数据,构建了全国典型自然灾害灾情救灾样本数据库。根据洪涝、地震灾害救灾的不同特点,利用多种算法和空间叠加分析建立了洪涝灾害救灾能力评估方法及算法模型;基于样本数据库,利用机器学习训练构建了具有一定泛化能力的地震灾害救灾能力评估算法模型。并利用模型对2023年海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水兰沟洼蓄滞洪区分洪运用、2021年海河流域暴雨洪水柳围坡等蓄滞洪区分洪运用、2023年积石山“12·18”地震3场典型历史灾害进行了验证,总体精度较高。研究成果可以在重大自然灾害发生初期为管理部门快速应对提供较为精准的救灾能力评估信息。

       

      Abstract: The information gathering for disaster relief capabilities in major natural disasters suffers from incomplete elements, low accuracy, and difficulty in application. A dynamic analysis model for regional-scale disaster relief capacity distribution and gaps was developed for two types of natural disasters—floods and earthquakes. Based on survey-collected historical data on typical flood and earthquake disasters, as well as disaster relief efforts across the country, a national sample database of typical natural disaster scenarios and relief efforts was established. Tailored to the distinct characteristics of flood and earthquake disaster relief, various algorithms and spatial overlay analyses were employed to develop assessment methods and algorithmic models for flood disaster relief capacity. Using the sample database, machine learning training was applied to construct a seismic disaster relief capacity assessment algorithm model with reasonable generalization capabilities. The models were validated using three representative historical disasters: the Haihe River Basin "23·7" extreme flood event (specifically the Langouwa Flood Storage and Detention Area), the 2021 Haihe River Basin storm flood (involving the Liuweipo and other flood storage and detention areas), and the 2023 Jishi Mountain "12·18" earthquake. The validation results demonstrated high overall accuracy of the model. This model can provide relatively precise assessments of disaster relief capacity during the initial phases of major natural disasters, and supporting information for management authorities to make rapid decision-making.

       

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