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    海河流域“25·7”区域性大洪水降雨背景分析及启示

    Analysis of the rainfall background and implications of the "25·7" regional major flood in the Haihe River Basin

    • 摘要: 2025年7月24—29日,海河流域因持续强降雨,致潮白河、滦河、大清河等多条河流发生暴雨洪水,引发“25·7”区域性大洪水。此次强降雨过程具有极端性强、累计降水量大,影响范围广,暴雨落区集中,持续时间长等特点,其日降雨量的极端性和影响范围尤为突出。成因分析表明,异常稳定的西北太平洋副热带高压及其与北上台风共同作用形成的充沛水汽输送是关键环流背景。此次事件发生在我国夏季雨带北扩的气候背景下,华北地区极端降水呈现增多增强的新特点。面对未来极端天气频发重发的风险,建议从加强流域精密监测、完善部门应急联动、应用风险普查成果、复核防洪标准及提升公众防灾意识等方面,系统性提升海河流域的洪涝灾害综合防御能力。

       

      Abstract: From July 24 to 29, 2025, due to continuous heavy rainfall, many rivers such as Chaobai River, Luanhe River and Daqinghe River experienced heavy rains and floods, which triggered the "25·7" regional major flood of the Haihe River Basin. The intense rainfall process was characterized by its high extremity, large cumulative precipitation, extensive impact area, concentrated heavy rainfall zone, and long duration, being particularly notable for the extremity of daily rainfall amounts and the vast area affected. Causality analysis indicates that the abnormally stable Western Pacific Subtropical High and its interaction with northward-moving typhoons, which created abundant water vapor transport, served as the key circulation background. This event occurred within the climatic context of the northward expansion of the summer rain belt in China, revealing a new characteristic of increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in North China. In the face of escalating risks of frequent and severe extreme weather events in the future, it is recommended to systematically enhance the comprehensive flood disaster prevention and response capabilities of the Haihe River Basin by strengthening watershed monitoring, improving interdepartmental emergency coordination, applying risk census results, reviewing flood control standards, and raising public awareness of disaster prevention.

       

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