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    山洪灾害调查评价成果复核方法探讨

    The verification method for flash flood disasters investigation and assessment

    • 摘要: 山洪灾害调查评价工作分析计算了设计暴雨洪水、现状防洪能力、预警指标,为山洪灾害预警奠定了基础。然而,山洪灾害防治区大都为小流域,无实测径流资料,设计洪水一般为理论推求,各种参数和预警指标与实际难免会有较大误差。通过湖北省谷城县瓦西河流域近期实际发生的暴雨洪水资料,检验复核山洪灾害评价成果的水位流量关系,分析设计暴雨洪水计算方法适用性及相关参数的合理性,检验复核临界雨量和预警指标,以期达到适时修订相关参数,完善现有评价成果,提高预警指标精准度的目的。同时,为无资料地区山洪灾害评价成果复核提供方法性探讨。

       

      Abstract: Flash flood disasters investigation and assessment includes analyzing and calculating of design flood, current flood control capacity and early warning indicators. It is a foundational element for flash flood disasters forecasting. However, most flash flood prone regions locate in small watershed, and there are no runoff records. The design flood is generally obtained by theoretical analysis, and some parameters may differ from reality. In this paper, based on first hand survey data from flood disasters at Waxi-River in Gucheng Counter, the relationship between the water level and flow rate in the flash flood disasters assessment results is verified; the applicability of the calculation method of design flood and the rationality of relevant parameters are discussed. The critical rainfall and early warning indicators are also analyzed. This study is expected to reach the objectives include adjusting relevant parameters, completing the current evaluation system and enhancing the accuracy of the early warning indicators. Meanwhile, this method provides reference value to review of flash flood disasters assessment in the data-lacking area.

       

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