收录期刊

    高级检索
    李超超, 李娜, 杜晓鹤, 程晓陶, 万金红. 福建省台风灾害损失影响因素分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2016, 26(2): 41-46.
    引用本文: 李超超, 李娜, 杜晓鹤, 程晓陶, 万金红. 福建省台风灾害损失影响因素分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2016, 26(2): 41-46.
    Li Chaochao, Li Na, Du Xiaohe, Cheng Xiaotao, Wan Jinhong. The impact factors analysis of typhoon disasters in Fujian Province[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2016, 26(2): 41-46.
    Citation: Li Chaochao, Li Na, Du Xiaohe, Cheng Xiaotao, Wan Jinhong. The impact factors analysis of typhoon disasters in Fujian Province[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2016, 26(2): 41-46.

    福建省台风灾害损失影响因素分析

    The impact factors analysis of typhoon disasters in Fujian Province

    • 摘要: 台风灾害直接经济损失变化存在着诸多不精确性和不确定性,具有灰色特征。以福建省为例,对1949~2014年登陆福建省的台风的时空分布进行分析,66年间,登陆福建省台风共111个,平均每年登陆1.7个,主要集中在7~9月,在中部(福建~厦门一带)登陆个数占总数的57%。在统计分析的基础上,利用灰关联度法分析了台风灾害直接经济损失与最大风速、最大日雨量、过程雨量、建成区面积、人均GDP等5个影响因素之间的关系。分析结果表明,风强、雨强统计参数与台风灾害直接经济损失的灰关联度均大于0.7。各因素对台风灾害损失的影响程度为:最大风速>最大日雨量>过程雨量>建成区面积>人均GDP。灰关联度分析方法可作为灾害影响因子识别与量化的一种手段,对找出灾害最主要的影响因素,有的放矢地制定减灾对策具有重要意义。

       

      Abstract: The direct economic loss caused by typhoon is subject to ambiguity and uncertainty and is difficult to be predicted. Based on 66a typhoon series (1949~2014) in Fujian Province, the characters in both space and time are analyzed. The total number of typhoon landed in Fujian is 111, and 1.7 per year. Typhoons are concentrated between July and September, and landed in the central of Fujian accounted for 57%. The correlations amongst typhoon disasters damage, maximum wind speed, maximum daily precipitation, maximum process precipitation, construction land area, and Per Capita GDP are thoroughly analyzed by using gray relational analysis technique. The study results indicate that the gray relational degree of the relation between typhoon disasters damage and wind/ storm intensity is more than 0.7, which implies the considerable influences of wind/ storm intensity on typhoon disaster damage. The effect degree of 5 main factors is as follows: maximum wind speed>maximum daily precipitation>maximum process precipitation>construction land area> Per Capita GDP. Grey relational analysis method can be utilized to identify and quantify disaster impact factors.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回