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    山东济南市小清河黄台桥水文站降水量多年变化特征及趋势分析

    Precipitation change characteristics and trend analysis of Huangtaiqiao hydrologic station in Jinan City, Shandong Province

    • 摘要: 应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法对济南市小清河黄台桥站降水量多年变化特征及趋势进行分析,并用单变量人工神经网络非线性时序模型对黄台桥站年降水量进行预测。通过研究发现黄台桥水文站年降水量呈现微弱的上升趋势(1.4 mm/10 a),其中秋季和冬季呈现下降趋势,另两季则呈微弱的上升趋势;基于人工神经网络非线性时序模型来预测2018年和2019年降水量,发现其值大于黄台桥站多年平均降水量。

       

      Abstract: This study applies Mann-Kendall trend test method to analyze the precipitation change characteristics and trend over years at Huangtaiqiao station, and predicts annual precipitation using univariate artificial neural network nonlinear time series model. It is discovered that the annual precipitation of Huangtaiqiao has a slight trend of increase (1.4 mm/10 a), with increasing in spring and summer and decreasing in fall and winter. The precipitations in 2018 and 2019 are predicted by artificial neural network nonlinear time series model, it is discovered that the value is higher than the annual average precipitation of huangtaiqiao station.

       

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