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    赵丽平, 邢西刚, 宋君, 姜晓明, 王刚. 分布式新安江模型在横锦水库洪水预报中的应用[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(7): 72-76. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021075
    引用本文: 赵丽平, 邢西刚, 宋君, 姜晓明, 王刚. 分布式新安江模型在横锦水库洪水预报中的应用[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(7): 72-76. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021075
    ZHAO Liping, XING Xigang, SONG Jun, JIANG Xiaoming, WANG Gang. Application of distributed Xin'anjiang model in flood forecasting of Hengjin reservoir[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2022, 32(7): 72-76. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021075
    Citation: ZHAO Liping, XING Xigang, SONG Jun, JIANG Xiaoming, WANG Gang. Application of distributed Xin'anjiang model in flood forecasting of Hengjin reservoir[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2022, 32(7): 72-76. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2021075

    分布式新安江模型在横锦水库洪水预报中的应用

    Application of distributed Xin'anjiang model in flood forecasting of Hengjin reservoir

    • 摘要: 横锦水库是一座以防洪、灌溉为主的大(2)型水利枢纽工程,洪水预报对于确保水库的防洪安全至关重要。利用分布式新安江模型构建了横锦水库流域洪水预报方案,并分别进行了日模(8 a日尺度资料)与次洪(25场洪水资料)过程模拟。应用结果表明:无论率定期还是检验期,次洪径流深相对误差和洪峰相对误差最大值皆在20%以内,确定性系数的平均值分别为0.834和0.838,峰现时差皆在2 h以内,25场洪水的合格率为100%。水库流域无可靠的实测流量过程,预报方案精度评定只考虑合格率,确定性系数仅供参考,故预报方案精度为甲等。构建的预报方案精度较高、合理可行,可为横锦水库流域洪水预报提供一定的参考价值。

       

      Abstract: Hengjin Reservoir is a second-grade water conservancy with primary purposes of flood control and irrigation. Flood prediction is very important to ensure the flood prevention safety of the reservoir. A flood forecasting scheme for Hengjin reservoir basin was constructed by using distributed Xin'anjiang model based on the daily (8 years of daily scale data) and the hourly data (25 floods). The application results show that: the maximum value of runoff depth relative error and flood peak relative error were less than 20%; the average values of the deterministic coefficients were 0.834 and 0.838 respectively; the time lag of flood peak was all within 2 hours, in both the regular rate and the inspection period. The qualified rate of 25 floods was 100%. Due to that there is no real measured flow process in the reservoir basin, the deterministic coefficient was only used as a reference. The qualified rate is only considered in the comprehensive evaluation, and the flood forecasting accuracy is Grade A. Therefore, the proposed forecasting scheme can be used as a reference for Hengjin Reservoir Basin.

       

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