Abstract:The Yuehe River, one of the major tributaries of the Hanjiang River, is located in the Shaannan mountain area of Shaanxi Province, which is prone to heavy rains and floods. The study on the consistency of rain and flood could provide an important guide for prevention and reduction of natural disasters in mountainous disaster-prone areas. In this paper, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Moving-t test methods were used to detect the temporal trends and mutation of hydrological variables and extreme precipitation indices from 1960 to 2012. The recession curve was derived from the historical flood series by the genetic algorithm, and the flood hydrographs were separated. Meanwhile, the variation characteristics of rainfall and floods and its relationship were analyzed by the grey relational analysis method. The results showed that the annual rainfall and runoff in Yuehe River Basin during the recent 53 years exhibited insignificant increasing and decreasing trend, respectively. The abrupt change point of annual runoff series occurred in 1985. The average proportion of underground runoff in total runoff changed from 21% before 1985 to 17% after 1985. The relationship between rainfall and flood became weakened after 1985, indicating that the stationarity of flood in the study area was challenged by climate change and human activities.
胡小红, 左德鹏. 陕南山区月河流域暴雨洪水特征变化分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32(4): 82-88.
HU Xiaohong, ZUO Depeng. Variation analysis on the characteristics of storm flood in Yuehe River basin, Shaannan mountain area. journal1, 2022, 32(4): 82-88.
[1] 李红霞,王瑞敏,黄琦,等.中小河流洪水预报研究进展[J].水文, 2020, 40(3):16-23. [2] Hong H, Panahi M, Shirzadi A, et al. Flood susceptibility assessment in Hengfeng area coupling adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with genetic algorithm and differential evolution[J].Science of the Total Environment, 2018, 621:1124-1141. [3] 郭良,丁留谦,孙东亚,等.中国山洪灾害防御关键技术[J].水利学报, 2018, 49(9):1123-1136. [4] 蒋卫威,鱼京善,赤穗良辅,等.基于水文水动力耦合模型的山区小流域洪水预报[J].水文, 2020, 40(5):28-35. [5] 孙静,桑国庆,王维林,等.基于半分布式水文模型的小流域山洪临界雨量指标计算[J].水文, 2020, 40(4):1-6. [6] 王燕云,原文林,龙爱华,等.基于SVR的无实测资料小流域山洪灾害临界雨量预估模型及应用——以河南新县为例[J].水文, 2020, 40(2):42-47. [7] 黄维东.甘肃省境内典型小流域暴雨特性及洪水过程模拟研究[J].水文, 2019, 39(6):27-33. [8] 马珊,刘昌军,何秉顺,等.温德河流域暴雨洪水时空特征及模拟分析[J].水利水电技术, 2019, 50(6):78-84. [9] 张大伟,杜晓鹤.从全流域角度防御山洪的一种工程措施新思路刍议——陕西洛南县"2020.8"洪水调研分析[J].中国防汛抗旱, 2021, 31(1):31-34. [10] He B, Huang X, Ma M, et al.Analysis of flash flood disaster characteristics in China from 2011 to 2015[J].Natural Hazards, 2018, 90(1):407-420. [11] 顾西辉,张强,王宗志.1951-2010年珠江流域洪水极值序列平稳性特征研究[J].自然资源学报, 2015, 30(5):824-835. [12] 杨阳,时璐,王岗,等.湟水流域洪水极值时间演变特征及趋势归因分析[J].中国农村水利水电, 2019, 61(8):98-104. [13] 杨传友.月河长枪铺水文站2012年"7·4"洪水特点分析[J].陕西水利, 2014, 83(3):25-26. [14] 张晓龙,黄领梅,沈冰.秦岭南北典型流域径流特征及其降水变化响应[J].水电能源科学, 2015, 33(1):11-14. [15] 王夏林.月河流域水生态环境综合评价研究[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学, 2013. [16] Mann H B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica, 1945, 13(3):245-259. [17] Kendall M G. A new measure of rank correlation[J].Biometrika, 1938, 30(1/2):81-93. [18] 邹家祥,王世岩,刘畅,等.北运河流域近57a降水量趋势变化及突变特征分析[J].水利水电技术, 2020, 51(S1):21-29. [19] 陈立华,冷刚,王焰,等.西江流域控制站洪峰洪量极值特征变化分析[J].水利水电技术, 2020, 51(6):30-39. [20] Hirsch R M, Slack J R, Smith R A. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water-quality data[J]. Water Resources Research, 1982, 18(1):107-121. [21] Zuo D, Xu Z, Yang H, et al.Spatiotemporal variations and abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to key meteorological variables in the Wei River basin, China[J].Hydrological Processes, 2012, 26(8):1149-1160. [22] 韩红霞,袁晶瑄,李建兵.基于遗传算法的流域退水曲线的研究[J].水文, 2009, 29(2):15-17. [23] 倪雅茜,张文华,郭生练.流量过程线分割方法的分析探讨[J].水文, 2005, 25(3):10-14. [24] Ferket B V A, Samain B, Pauwels V R N. Internal validation of conceptual rainfall-runoff models using baseflow separation[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 381(1-2):158-173. [25] Mei Y, Anagnostou E N. A hydrograph separation method based on information from rainfall and runoff records[J].Journal of Hydrology, 2015, 523:636-649. [26] 谭学瑞,邓聚龙.灰色关联分析:多因素统计分析新方法[J].统计研究, 1995, 12(3):46-48. [27] Zhang X, Feng Y.RClimDex (1.0) user manual[M].Canada:Climate Research Branch Enviroment Canada Downsview, 2004. [28] 于淑秋,林学椿,徐祥德.我国西北地区近50年降水和温度的变化[J].气候与环境研究, 2003(1):9-18. [29] 殷田园,殷淑燕,李富民.秦岭南北区域夏季极端降水与西太平洋副热带高压的关系[J].干旱区研究2019, 36(6):1379-1390. [30] 殷淑燕,任利利,黄春长. ENSO事件对汉江上游暴雨洪水影响的研究[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2013, 22(8):1096-1102. [31] 张蓓蓓,王朋,张辉等.近63 a安康地区降水与太阳黑子活动的相关性分析[J].干旱区研究, 2018, 35(6):1336-1343.