Spatio-temporal evolution trend analysis of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin
LIU Bingjun1,2,3, FU Jianyu1,2, LIANG Manlin1,2, JI Yadong1,2
1. School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082; 2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Zhuhai 519082; 3. Southern Laboratory of Ocean Science and Engineering, Zhuhai 519000
摘要珠江流域作为典型的亚热带湿润区,其气候条件受气旋、副热带高压等大气系统交替和流域复杂下垫面条件的影响,极易发生旱涝急转灾害,严重威胁珠江流域的水安全与粮食安全。为了全面分析珠江流域旱涝急转灾害时空演变趋势,基于1961-2020年珠江流域实测水文气象数据,采用趋势检验、空间重心转移轨迹等方法对珠江流域旱涝急转事件的烈度、历时、频次和强度等属性特征进行分析。结果显示虽然珠江流域旱涝急转事件的整体年际变化趋势不显著,但近20 a (2001-2020年)珠江流域旱涝急转事件相较于1961-2000年有明显减缓;空间上,珠江流域涝转旱事件主要集中于流域上游地区,中游地区受涝转旱影响较轻;1961-2020年,涝转旱事件各个属性特征值重心逐步向西江流域上游方向转移,旱转涝事件各个属性特征值则具有向流域下游方向转移的趋势。
Abstract：The Pearl River Basin is a typical subtropical humid region. Its climatic conditions are affected by the alternation of atmospheric systems, such as cyclones/subtropical high pressure, and the complex underlying surface conditions. It is prone to drought and flood disasters, which could seriously threaten Water security in the Pearl River Basin and the Greater Bay Area(Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao). In order to comprehensively analyze the spatio-temporal evolution trend of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Pearl River Basin, the intensity, duration, frequency and strength of drought-flood abrupt alternation events were analyzed by using trend test, spatial center of gravity transfer trajectory and other methods based on the hydrometeorological observations of the Pearl River Basin from 1961 to 2020. The results show that although the overall interannual trend of the drought- flood abrupt alternation in the Pearl River Basin is not significant, The characteristics of the drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Pearl River Basin in the past 20 years (2001-2020) have been mitigated significantly compared with 1961- 2000; Spatially, the most serve drought- flood abrupt alternations are mainly concentrated in the upper reaches of the Pearl River Basin, while the middle reaches are less affected by the drought-flood alternation. Moreover, during the period from 1961 to 2020, the characteristics of the flood- to- drought events gradually shifted to the upstream direction of the Xijiang River Basin, and the characteristics of the drought-to-flood abrupt change event showed a trend of transferring towards the downstream direction of the basin.
刘丙军, 傅健宇, 梁曼琳, 姬亚东. 珠江流域旱涝急转灾害时空演变趋势分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2023, 33(6): 12-19,45.
LIU Bingjun, FU Jianyu, LIANG Manlin, JI Yadong. Spatio-temporal evolution trend analysis of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin. journal1, 2023, 33(6): 12-19,45.
[1] 吴志伟,李建平,何金海,等.大尺度大气环流异常与长江中下游夏季长周期旱涝急转[J].科学通报, 2006, 51(14):1717-1724. [2] 李维京,左金清,宋艳玲,等.气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害时空格局变化[J].气象, 2015, 41(3):261-271. [3] TING M, WANG H.Summertime U.S. precipitation variability and its relation to Pacific Sea surface temperature[J].Journal of Climate, 2010, 10(8):1853-1873. [4] 韩兰英,张强,贾建英,等.气候变暖背景下中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间及其南北差异性[J].中国沙漠, 2019, 39(5):1-10. [5] 程智,徐敏,罗连升,等.淮河流域旱涝急转气候特征研究[J].水文, 2012, 32(1):73-79. [6] YANG S,WU B,ZHANG R,et al.Relationship between an abrupt drought-flood transition over mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River in 2011 and the intraseasonal oscillation over mid-high latitudes of East Asia[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2013, 27(2):129-143. [7] 谢宇莹,刘智勇,林凯荣.我国旱涝交替事件识别及演变规律[J].长江科学院院报, 2021, 38(9):77-85. [8] 杨家伟,陈华,侯雨坤,等.基于气象旱涝指数的旱涝急转事件识别方法[J].地理学报, 2019, 74(11):2358-2370. [9] 何慧,廖雪萍,陆虹,等.华南地区1961-2014年夏季长周期旱涝急转特征[J].地理学报, 2016, 71(1):130-141. [10] 闪丽洁,张利平,陈心池,等.长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境, 2015, 24(12):2100-2107. [11] SHAN L J, ZHANG L P, SONG J Y, et al. Characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the relationship with ENSO[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(8):1039-1058. [12] LI Yonghua, XU Haiming, GAO Yanghua, et al. Characteristics of outgoing longwave radiation related to typical flood and drought years over the east of Southwest China in Summer[J].Plateau Meteorology, 2009, 28(4):861-869. [13] YE Z, LI Z.Spatiotemporal variability and trends of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin, a climatic transitional zone in East China[J]. Advances in Meteorology, 2017:1-15. [14] NIU J.Precipitation in the Pearl River basin, South China:scaling, regional patterns, and influence of large-scale climate anomalies[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research Risk Assessment, 2013, 27(5):1253-1268. [15] FANG W, HUANG S Z, ZHANG Y, et al.Copulas-based risk analysis for inter-seasonal combinations of wet and dry conditions under a changing climate[J].International Journal of Climatology, 2018, 39(4):2005-2021. [16] 杨溯,李庆祥.中国降水量序列均一性分析方法及数据集更新完善[J].气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(4):276-281. [17] 王留杰,张行南,方园皓,等.中国区域地面气象要素数据集在长江上游流域的适用性评估[J].水力发电, 2017, 43(3):18-22. [18] 梁曼琳,刘丙军,李旦.珠江流域旱涝急转事件识别指数优选研究[J].自然灾害学报, 2022, 31(4):57-64. [19] LU Er.Determining the start, duration, and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation:rationale[J].Geophysical Research Letters, 2009, 36(12):1179-1179. [20] MANN H B. Non-parametric test against trend[J].Econometrica, 1945, 13(3):245-259. [21] DAVID F, KENDALL M. Rank correlation methods[J].Biometrika, 1950, 37:190. [22] WANG Z L, LI J, LAI C, et al.Does drought in China show a significant decreasing trend from 1961 to 2009[J].Sci Total Environ, 2017, 579:314-324.
2023, Vol. 33 
